- Electric car shares will bring an end to over 100 years of individual ownership
- 95% of miles travelled will happen in autonomous electric vehicles by 2030
- Users will abandon cars because it no longer makes sense financially, report says
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Cars will die out by 2030 as electric self-driving car shares take over our roads, according to a new report.
Ninety-five per cent of miles travelled in the US will happen in autonomous vehicles owned by fleets rather than individuals in just over a decade, researchers found.
This new technology will be up to ten times cheaper than buying a new car and will bring an end to more than 100 years of individual vehicle ownership.
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Ninety-five per cent of miles travelled will happen in autonomous electric vehicles which are owned by fleets rather than individuals in little more than a decade, according to a new report
'We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,' said Tony Seba, co-author of the report, produced by RethinkX, an independent research group based in California.
The report found Autonomous Electric Vehicles (A-EVs) will be owned by companies providing Transport as a Service (TaaS) by 2030 which will make up 60 per cent of vehicles on US roads.
As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030, the report said.
Authors of the study claim this move is driven by economics and users will abandon their personal cars because it no longer makes sense financially.
They predict using electric vehicles will be between two to four times cheaper than operating exis ting vehicles by 2021.
They will also have a vehicle lifetime of more than 500,000 miles and far lower maintenance, energy, finance and insurance costs, researchers say.
The average American household will save $5,600 (£4,333) per year by giving up its gas-powered car and travelling by autonomous vehicles, authors say.
'While these projections may seem radical because they differ from mainstream and incumbent industry projections, they are really quite conservative because they are based on assumptions that in some cases have already been bested by new technologies and plummeting prices,' said Bryan Hansel, CEO of Chanje Energy.
As demand for new vehicles plummets, 70 per cent fewer passenger cars and trucks will be manufactured each year.
Most major automakers and several other technology firms ha ve been stepping up efforts on autonomous driving in recent years including Waymo and Lyft (pictured) who are joining forces against ridesharing giant Uber, which is racing to develop its own self-driving vehicles
This could result in total disruption of the car value chain, with car dealers, maintenance and insurance companies suffering almost complete destruction.
For the oil industry, the widespread shift away from individual gas-powered vehicles and toward electric, shared autonomous vehicles will be catastrophic.
Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million barrels per day by 2030, authors predict.
Individual ownership of gas-powered vehicle will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs, and diminishing quality of service and convenience, researchers found.
Waymo, the self-driving car unit of Google parent Alphabet, has reached an agreement with ridesharer Lyft to test self-driving car technology, the companies said.
Waymo and Lyft are joining forces against ridesharing giant Uber, which is racing to develop its own self-driving vehicles.
'We're looking forward to working with Lyft to explore new self-driving products that will make our roads safer and transportation more accessible,' a Waymo spokesman told AFP.
'Lyft's vision and commitment to improving the way cities move will help Waymo's self-driving technology reach more people, in more places.'
Most major automakers and several other technology firms have been stepping up efforts on autonomous driving in recent years, contending these systems will eliminate the vast majority of road accidents. Apple is the latest to have obtained a testing permi t in California.
German luxury car maker Daimler and auto parts supplier Bosch announced plans this month to work together to create completely driverless cars in the next few years.
Tesla is also stepping up efforts, as are several Chinese technology firms and the major US, Asian and European manufacturers.
